A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
