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Mounting concerns have emerged regarding the chance of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive rhetoric has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has provoked a intense verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Relations between the two countries have often been tense. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and hinted at the desire to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "addressed in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "through military action".

Eritrean Reaction to the Threats

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on X from Communications Head the minister.

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of retaking previous domains.

The information ministry warned on recently that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Region

Currently, there are no reports of major military movements in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, government media has displayed training completions of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the military, General Hachalu, commented lately in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Tension

For decades from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian rulers.

After Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year armed struggle ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were friendly connections between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, causing war in 1998.

Though this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a declaration that the conflict was over – a decision that gained Abiy the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

Yet relations have later worsened anew.